CSP responds to long term workforce plan modelling inquiry

NHS England published its long term workforce plan (LTWP) in June 2023.  In spring 2024 the National Audit Office (NAO) made an independent assessment of the methodologies for modelling workforce supply and demand.

Based on the NAO assessment the public accounts committee invited evidence on: models underpinning the LTWP; future NHS productivity; expansion of training places; and funding. The committee will hear from senior officials at the Department of Health and Social Care, HM Treasury and NHS England on these subjects.  

Within our full submission, we agree with the NAO’s assessment that there have been flaws in how workforce supply and demand have been calculated in relation to physiotherapy. 

For physiotherapy, the modelling for the LTWP is overly focused on existing staffing numbers and vacancy rates and not on population and service need. 

The demand for physiotherapy university courses is growing in England, in contrast to other professions. In fact, the supply of registered physiotherapists in the UK is healthy and increasingly diverse. In past years we have seen a significant growth in physio numbers and room for further increase with high demand for physiotherapy training. 

 Where funding an expansion of medic and nurse training places cannot meet supply targets, it should be used to expand staffing numbers of professions like physiotherapy where supply is not the issue. 

Rachel Newton, head of policy at the CSP, said:  ‘One of our concerns with the LTWP is its focus on vacancies rather than staffing levels and unmet patient needs. An area that is historically understaffed is that of rehabilitation.  

'With a growing proportion of the population managing long term conditions and frailty there is further pressure placed on other areas of the NHS and social care.

The physiotherapy workforce is essential in meeting this need and reducing demand on GPs, cutting hospital admissions, reducing length of stay in hospital and need for residential care. 

'To meet the government’s 2023 mandate to NHS England to continue the shift towards community-based care, more physiotherapy staff are needed at all levels.  

'As part of the CSP’s evidence submitted to the public accounts committee we have argued that career development and progression through apprenticeships, flexible working policies are essential to retaining physiotherapy staff within the NHS.’